Commentary for October, 2025

Hello all - we hope your October was a nice one.

Yet again, stocks were higher on the month. The Dow rose 2.5%, the S&P 500 gained 2.3%, and the Nasdaq, which has a higher concentration of tech stocks, added a solid 4.7%. 

Here’s a look at how the markets moved this month:

Here’s a look at the performance of the various sectors in the market:

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The market is still trading in the tight range we’ve seen the last several months.

 
Although the market was higher, this month saw volatility hit its highest level in six months.  We’ll talk more about what caused the volatility later.

This month was also unique in that we saw a day where the S&P 500 (which has 500 stocks) had 300 stocks move lower on the day, but the market still closed higher.  This hasn’t happened in 35 years!

 

In fact, the market continues to rise while fewer and fewer stocks are higher.  In a healthy environment, as markets rise, more stocks should be above their recent average.  That’s not the case today.  Below is a chart showing fewer stocks above their recent averages.  

This can happen because big AI-related stocks keep getting bigger, so they have a larger impact on the market.  Right now, the ten biggest stocks make up 41% of the S&P 500.  That means 490 stocks make up 60% of the market.  That’s incredible, and potentially dangerous. 

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We’ll look at gold real quick, which had been a hot story as it rose very quickly to new record highs.  The bubble finally deflated this month. 

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What was going on with the markets this month?

The cause of the volatility earlier this month was due to concerns about the banking sector.  

Think back a few years to 2023 when smaller banks like Silicon Valley Bank collapsed.  Markets fell sharply on the news since they were the first banks to collapse since the 2007-08 banking crisis.  This sector had been fairly quiet since then, but this month, two more regional banks collapsed.  Investors decided to sell first, ask questions later and markets fell on the news.

It turns out, the problems with the two banks that failed were isolated to bad loans they made to questionable borrowers.  The issue quickly faded and markets recovered.

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CORPORATE EARNINGS

With little to no economic data out from the government this month due to the shutdown, corporate earnings grabbed headlines.  The results from the third quarter have been pretty solid, too.  About 65% of the companies in the S&P have reported results and according to Factset, earnings are up over 10% and revenue is up almost 8%.

This gave investors confidence and markets continued their march higher.  

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TARIFFS

Tariffs also grabbed headlines.  

One day we’d see negative headlines like this:

Then we’d get headlines like this:

 

This presents an incredibly frustrating investing environment.  But in the end, it looks like the issues with China have been cooled.  At least for now.

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FED

The Fed held a policy meeting this month and announced another highly-anticipated rate. 

 

Fed chief Powell seemed very reluctant to do this.  He made a point to note that a rate cut at their next meeting in December may not occur.  Prior to this meeting, investors thought there was a 91% chance of a rate cut in December.  That number quickly fell and now stands at 70%.

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INFLATION

Inflation was one of the few data points out this month. Inflation remains an issue as it holds at its high levels. 

When we look at inflation on a month-to-month basis, prices continue to rise.

When excluding energy and food from the calculation (which economists call the “core” measurement), inflation rose steadily yet again. 

While the CPI data was released this month, the PPI was not.  With the way things look in Washington right now, we might not get it next month, either!

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OTHER ECONOMIC DATA

Other economic data that was released this month showed a mixed picture.

While there weren’t any jobs data released, several big companies announced massive job cuts.  For example, UPS announced 48,000 job cuts and Amazon announced 30,000.  That’s a big deal!

With a more granular look at the economy, the manufacturing side rose slightly again, while the service side saw a surprising drop. 

Consumer confidence continues to be an issue as it fell yet again.

Small business optimism turned lower, too.

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Where does the market go from here?

We hit very overbought (expensive) levels in the market late this month, so it wasn’t a surprise to see stocks sell off a little.  These dips have been quickly bought, so it will be interesting to see if investors step in and buy more here.  We’d like to see a bigger pullback before we got too excited.

This commentary is for informational purposes and is not investment advice, an indicator of future performance, a solicitation, an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation for any security. It should not be used as a primary basis for making investment decisions. Consider your own financial circumstances and goals carefully before investing. Past performance cannot guarantee results.

Commentary for September, 2025

Hello all - we hope you had a nice September.

Stocks turned in yet another higher month. The Dow saw a gain of 1.9%, the S&P 500 rose 3.7%, and the Nasdaq, which has a higher concentration of tech stocks, added a solid 5.6%. 

 

Here’s a look at how the markets moved this month:

Here’s a look at the performance of the various sectors in the market:

Interestingly, the market continues to trade in the tight range we’ve seen the last several months.

Gold has been a big story, too, as it keeps climbing to new record highs.

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The markets are becoming more and more concentrated, with a few big names getting bigger and the rest of the market languishing.  

The five biggest stocks in the S&P 500 now make up nearly 30% of the index (Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Amazon).  Keep in mind, there are 495 other stocks in this index!

The ten biggest stocks are now 40% of the index!

While these big names are successful companies, it’s not healthy for a market to have such a high concentration of stocks.  Markets become more volatile and can fall sharply in these scenarios.

In fact, the market continues to rise while fewer and fewer stocks are doing well.  In a healthy scenario, markets rise and more stocks should be above their recent average.  That’s not the case today.  Below is a chart showing fewer stocks above their recent averages.  

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TRADERS ALMANAC

An interesting quirk in the markets is the time between the Jewish holidays of Rosh Hashana and Yom Kippur.  The trader’s almanac says to sell stocks on Rosh Hashana (this year on Sept. 22) and buy them on Yom Kippur (Oct. 2).  

Why?  

Like any of these trends, it’s hard to know exactly.  This year, though, we had options expiring just before Rosh Hashana, so selling may have happened after that.  This is also the end of the most volatile month and quarter, so that may play a part, too. 

As you can see in the chart below, selling on Rosh Hashana would have been an ideal time to do so.  Let’s see if October 2nd turns out to be a good time to buy!

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FED

The Fed held a policy meeting this month and announced a highly-anticipated rate cut for the first time this year.  He cited weakness in the job market as the reason for doing so. 

 

The market seems to be expecting more rate cuts this year, but we aren’t so certain.  A failure to announce more cuts is certain to see stocks fall on the news.
 

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INFLATION

Inflation data out this month showed inflation continuing to pick up. 

When we look at inflation on a month-to-month basis, prices continue to rise.

When excluding energy and food from the calculation (which economists call the “core” measurement), inflation rose steadily yet again.

Inflation at the business level has been very volatile lately.  At least this month there was a decline in prices, which may result in a lower CPI in the future.

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OTHER ECONOMIC DATA

Other economic data released this month showed a mixed picture.

The jobs picture looks terrible.  The number of new jobs has been trending lower and the last four months have seen very few jobs added. 

With a more granular look at the economy, both the manufacturing and service sides of our economy saw modest increases.

Retail sales moved higher again: 

Durable goods (these are items with a longer life, like a phone or refrigerator) also saw a slight increase.

Consumer confidence moved slightly lower.

However, small business owners are increasingly more optimistic. 

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Where does the market go from here?

October can be a volatile month for stocks, but its also historically a good month to buy as stocks rise into the end of the year.  Right now, stocks look to be a little expensive, but the trend has been steadily higher so we may keep climbing from here.  





This commentary is for informational purposes and is not investment advice, an indicator of future performance, a solicitation, an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation for any security. It should not be used as a primary basis for making investment decisions. Consider your own financial circumstances and goals carefully before investing. Past performance cannot guarantee results.

Commentary for August, 2025

Hello all - we hope you had a nice August.

It was yet another month in the green for stocks. The Dow posted a gain of 4.0%, the S&P 500 added 2.0%, and the Nasdaq, which has a higher concentration of tech stocks, rose 3.0%. 

Here’s a look at how the markets moved this month:

Here’s a look at the performance of the various sectors in the market:

We saw a little more volatility at the beginning of the month, but that volatility subsided quickly.

The market continues to trade in the tight range we’ve seen the last several months.

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TARIFFS

It seems like a long time ago, but August opened with new tariff announcements from the Trump administration.  Some countries saw higher tariff rates while others saw lower rates.  

For the longest time, tariffs kept getting delayed and the market didn’t pay much attention.  The realization that the tariffs are here and are now implemented helped the market sell off strongly on the news. 

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NVIDIA

Earnings from Nvidia was a highly-anticipated event this month.  We don’t often talk about individual stocks, but Nvidia, whose chips are used in AI supercomputers, is the largest weighted stock in the market and it sets the tone for the direction of the market.

The company released earnings and while they still showed strong growth, they weren’t growing as fast as before.  Additionally, they anticipated slower growth ahead. 

The hype around AI has been a big driver in the markets recently, sending tech stocks in particular to record highs.   While the AI hype is still here, the excitement may be starting to cool down. 

As goes Nvidia, so goes the market.  The stock faded into the end of the month and the broader market tagged along, too.

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FED

Later in August, the market saw solid gains on news out of the Fed that rate cuts were likely in September.  

The Fed held their annual “Economic Symposium” in Jackson Hole, where they don’t implement any new policies at that time, but discuss the conditions and their outlook.  Fed chief Jay Powell cited the weakness in the jobs market as a reason for possibly lowering rates.  

It’s the most ‘dovish’ Jay Powell has been in a long time and the market saw it as a green light to go higher.

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EMPLOYMENT

The worry about the employment picture cited by Jay Powell was due to the economy adding only 73,000 jobs last month.  Additionally, the figures from the previous two months were revised sharply lower.

Adding to the volatility, President Trump weighed in citing manipulation by the bean counters and ordered the head of this division to be fired.

While the large and frequent revisions in these number do suggest something is wrong, declaring it manipulation and replacing the head of the department raises questions about quality of all economic data going forward.  This will only lead to more volatility in the future.  

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INFLATION

Inflation data out this month showed inflation may be getting warmer. 

When we look at inflation on a month-to-month basis, prices continue to rise.

When excluding energy and food from the calculation (which economists call the “core” measurement), inflation rose steadily yet again. 

Inflation at the business level showed a surprisingly high jump over the past month.  This inflation level tends to lead the CPI, and investors are worried that the tariff costs are starting to work their way into the system. 

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OTHER ECONOMIC DATA

Other economic data released this month showed an economy that continues to grow, though slightly.

With a more granular look at the economy, both the manufacturing and service sides of our economy saw modest declines.

Retail sales moved higher: 

Durable goods (these are items with a longer life, like a phone or refrigerator) also saw a slight increase.

Consumer confidence moved slightly lower.

However, small business owners were slightly more optimistic. 

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Where does the market go from here?

Stocks seem slightly overvalued here in the short run, but the trend has been steadily higher.  However, we are entering a historically volatile time of year, so caution is warranted. 

This commentary is for informational purposes and is not investment advice, an indicator of future performance, a solicitation, an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation for any security. It should not be used as a primary basis for making investment decisions. Consider your own financial circumstances and goals carefully before investing. Past performance cannot guarantee results.