Sunday, July 31, 2011

Commentary for the week ending 7-29-11

The stalemate in Washington helped send the markets to their worst weekly performance of the year. Through the Friday close, the Dow plunged 4.2%, the S&P was off 3.9%, and the Nasdaq fell 3.6%. The poor showing this week also sent markets into the red for the month. As investors looked for safer investments, Treasury bonds rose and yields fell to the lowest level since November. Oil fell on the weakness, off 4.2%. Gold continues to chug higher, again reaching new all-time highs and closing the week up 1.7%.

Source: MSN Moneycentral

Grabbing all the headlines this week was the back and forth on the debt ceiling debate. We are sure you’ve been aware of the situation, so we won’t waste much time discussing the details. The looming deadline and lack of resolution created a fear in the markets that resulted in an awful performance in the stock market.

The perceived fear is that a default is imminent if the debt ceiling is not raised. There are various ways for the Treasury to pay our debts, so we believe a default is completely off the table.

We think the bigger fear is of a downgrade to our credit rating. That would result in higher borrowing costs for the government, but also trickle down to Main Street. Even if our debt ceiling is raised, a downgrade is still a possibility. Ratings agencies have said they would like to see at least $3-4 trillion in cuts to prevent a downgrade.

What has us most frightened is that politicians can’t even agree to $3 trillion in cuts – over the next 10 years! That amounts to $300 billion a year, while still a big amount, is nothing compared to what the government currently spends. When we look out to the future, we see monstrous entitlement programs requiring massive government spending in the coming years and decades. If they can’t agree on $300 billion a year now, there is little hope for the future. That’s why we think long term plays like gold and shorting (profit when the value goes down) Treasuries and the dollar will do well.

With the 24/7 coverage of the debt ceiling debate, one would think that there wasn’t any other news this week. In our best Lee Corso (of ESPN college football) voice, not so fast my friend! On Friday we received the 2nd quarter GDP and it came in much lower than expected at just 1.3%. That means the economy grew at just 1.3% last quarter, a terribly weak number. Much of the weakness was attributed to higher prices in food and gas.

Even more surprisingly, the 1st quarter GDP previously stood at 1.9% and was revised down to just 0.4%. Like many others, we thought that number was a typo because it was so bad. This shows just how weak the economy is. Yet the weak economy has had little effect on the stock market.

Despite this weakness, corporate earnings continue to be decent. Not surprisingly, companies with a strong reliance on the U.S. have not fared as well. Companies with a strong reliance on commodity inputs had a tough quarter, as well. You see this in a variety of sectors, from diapers (Kimberly-Clark) to autos (Ford and Chrysler) to photography (Kodak).

However, strength from overseas, as well as solid exports to these regions, has helped the profits of the majority of companies this quarter. As long as there is a strong overseas market, this trend should continue.

Also on the bright side this week, first-time unemployment claims dropped below 400,000 for the first time in four months. Coming in at 398k, that number is likely to be revised higher (they are always revised higher) next week, but it was welcomed, nonetheless.


Next Week

Next week will be lighter in terms of corporate earnings releases than recent weeks, but it will still be busy. We will get a variety of economic data as we begin the new month, from manufacturing, to personal income and spending, to factory production. The most important data comes on Friday with the unemployment report. It has been a rough month, so most economists aren’t too optimistic on this result.

Above everything else, we think the focus will be on Washington next week. At the time of this writing, no resolution has been made. Until one is reached, it could present another volatile investing environment.


Investment Strategy

As we saw this week, headlines out of Washington are driving the market. We dislike investing in such an unpredictable environment (although is any environment predictable?). One bright spot we can look at, though, is what happened in the markets on Friday. As a rumor spread that a compromise was in the works for the debt ceiling, the markets rose sharply. They fell again when this wasn’t the case, but we think that if an agreement is actually reached (an agreement with some teeth), the markets will react similarly. It would also mean a pullback in other investments like gold or bonds.

We are still cautious, though. It is tough to make decisions when one day, news out of Washington pushes all stocks higher, only to do the opposite the next. When all stocks move together, it makes stock picking a fruitless effort.

We have enjoyed investing in smaller stocks that are uncorrelated to the movements of the market and economy. These aren’t big positions in our portfolio and can be risky, but it is nice seeing stocks move on fundamentals rather than being pushed around by macro events, big money investors, and high frequency traders.

Outside of these small stocks, if we were to put new money to work, in equities we are focused on large cap higher-quality stocks, particularly companies with operations overseas. We like commodities for the long term and weakness could present a buying opportunity.

TIPs are important as we expect inflation to increase (although we will revise our outlook for these securities if any changes are made to the CPI measurements), while U.S. Treasuries are a sector we are very bearish (pessimistic) on as we think yields will increase over time and is looking more likely as QE2 has ended. Municipal bonds are important and there are some nice yielding bonds out there now (try to avoid muni funds and buy the actual bond if possible).

Finally, international stocks are facing many headwinds, most notably slower growth and inflation. Still, if we had to put new money in, we favor developed international markets as opposed to emerging.

These day-to-day and week-to-week fluctuations have little impact on positions we intend to hold for several years or longer. Our short and medium term investments are the only positions affected by these weekly and monthly changes.



This commentary is for informational purposes and is not investment advice, an indicator of future performance, a solicitation, an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation for any security. It should not be used as a primary basis for making investment decisions. Consider your own financial circumstances and goals carefully before investing. Past performance cannot guarantee results.

Sunday, July 24, 2011

Commentary for the week ending 7-22-11

Corporate earnings continued to be strong, helping push the markets higher. For the week, the Dow rose 1.6%, the S&P was up 2.2%, and the Nasdaq climbed 2.5%. Oil prices keep moving higher, briefly crossing $100 per barrel while settling the week just below that price. Gold reached another all-time high, passing the $1,600 an ounce level and up 0.7% this week.


Source: MSN Moneycentral

The week started out on a negative note with, not surprisingly, worries over European debt. Greece continues to be a concern, but the debt worries have spread to other countries like Italy and Spain. By the end of the week, however, another bailout package was passed for Greece and the news helped move the markets higher.

The big news of the week was the solid corporate earnings releases. A large portion of S&P 500 stocks released their earnings this week and ¾ of them beat expectations. One can argue that expectations have been lowered, but that has not mattered. Stocks have soared on the results. In fact, the Dow rose over 200 points on Tuesday, the biggest gain of the year.

Companies with operations overseas have fared particularly well, as foreign markets continued to be stronger then the U.S.

There were a few notable misses, however, with one being Caterpillar. The company still had good earnings, up 44%, but they were lower than expected. The disappointment was attributed to several factors, but most notably to a slowdown in China. That leads us to a bigger theme, the outlook on China’s future.

Granted, China is still growing, but the pace of growth looks to be slowing. We have wondered how long they could keep up their breakneck pace of growth, but they kept getting stronger. A massive amount of money has been spent, mostly on infrastructure, and the debts are accumulating and could be problematic. Then when you see entire cities vacant, you have to wonder how much of the growth is an illusion. The growth in China has played a large part in many of our markets, especially commodities, so a slowdown here would have a significant impact on the U.S.

The debt ceiling debate has been another hot topic this week. At the time of this writing, an agreement has not been reached. The markets have bounced back and forth, first on news of a debt deal, then news that there was not. It is a very difficult environment to invest in and has us very cautious.

We are glad to see many Congressional members holding the line on tax increases. An increase in taxes would be another headwind in our already weak economy. Not to mention the fact that higher taxes do not increase revenue. As history has shown us, lower taxes have lead to an increase in growth and, therefore, revenue. The popular term these days is “revenue increases” when referring to tax hikes. If we actually wanted revenue increases, we would lower tax rates.

Economic data this weak was light, and what there was, was mixed. Housing and employment were weak, with new reports showing more companies laying off employees. Leading economic indicators were higher, driven by a rise in the M2 money supply. It is thought that banks have been getting more of their reserves into circulation, therefore increasing the money supply, just like the Fed hoped.

We have heard reports to the contrary, though. Without getting too specific, it appears that new regulations may have had a hand in this, relating to certain types of bank accounts. As money is pulled from these deposits, it appears that the M2 is rising. However, it is artificial. We would like to think that leading economic indicators are rising, but realize they may be weaker than originally thought.


Next Week

We will continue to get corporate earnings at a strong pace next week, so it will again be a busy week. Economic data will pick up as we get information on housing, manufacturing, durable goods, and most importantly, the 2nd quarter GDP. GDP expectations have been low, mostly below 2%, so any surprises will move the markets.

The debt ceiling debate will also be in the forefront as the deadline approaches. The closer we get, the more likely it will be that a short term fix will the result. A resolution will likely produce a pop in the market, but the back-and-forth of last week is always a possibility.


Investment Strategy

Again, no change here as we work our way through earnings season. We have thought there may be a slowdown in earnings, but that has yet to be the case. Earnings outside the U.S. has been a bright spot for many companies.

Additionally, the debt ceiling debate has been a frustration as the back-and-forth’s have produced large swings in sentiment in the market. It is tough to make decisions when one day, news out of Washington pushes all stocks higher, only to do the opposite the next. When all stocks move together, it makes stock picking a fruitless effort.

We have enjoyed investing in smaller stocks that are uncorrelated to the movements of the market and economy. These aren’t big positions in our portfolio and can be risky, but it is nice seeing stocks move on fundamentals rather than being pushed around by macro events, big money investors, and high frequency traders.

Outside of these small stocks, if we were to put new money to work, in equities we are focused on large cap higher-quality stocks, particularly companies with operations overseas. We like commodities for the long term and weakness could present a buying opportunity.

TIPs are important as we expect inflation to increase (although we will revise our outlook for these securities if any changes are made to the CPI measurements), while U.S. Treasuries are a sector we are very bearish (pessimistic) on as we think yields will increase over time and is looking more likely as QE2 has ended. Municipal bonds are important and there are some nice yielding bonds out there now (try to avoid muni funds and buy the actual bond if possible).

Finally, international stocks are facing many headwinds, most notably, slower growth and inflation. Still, if we had to put new money in, we favor developed international markets as opposed to emerging.

These day-to-day and week-to-week fluctuations have little impact on positions we intend to hold for several years or longer. Our short and medium term investments are the only positions affected by these weekly and monthly changes.



This commentary is for informational purposes and is not investment advice, an indicator of future performance, a solicitation, an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation for any security. It should not be used as a primary basis for making investment decisions. Consider your own financial circumstances and goals carefully before investing. Past performance cannot guarantee results.

Sunday, July 17, 2011

Commentary for the week ending 7-15-11

It was a rough week for the markets. Through the Friday close, the Dow fell 1.4%, the S&P was down 2.1%, and the Nasdaq fared the worst, down 2.5%. Oil prices continued to climb, up 1.1% and inching back towards the $100 per barrel level. Gold had a banner week after remarks from the Fed chief helped push it higher by 3.2%.


Source: MSN Moneycentral

There was a lot of movement in the markets this week with many different factors having an impact.

Unfortunately, the Euro problems just won’t go away. Greece may be out of the headlines for the moment, but this week Italy resumed its place. The problems with Italy are not as bad as Greece, but investors are worried that these debt problems are spreading to larger European countries. The news started the week out on a sour note for the markets.

Fed chief Ben Bernanke spoke in front of Congress on Wednesday and Thursday and his remarks had a significant impact on the market. On Wednesday he indicated that the Fed was open to another round of stimulus and markets popped higher on the news. He must have realized that his comments were misinterpreted and spent the next day downplaying the likelihood of additional stimulus, sending the markets back lower.

There was one comment from the Fed chief that made a lot of people take notice. He was asked if he thought gold was money, to which he responded “No.” If you look at it in the way the Fed probably looks at it, then it’s probably not. You can’t take gold to the grocery store, for example, and pay for items like you do with a paper currency.

However, gold has been a store of value for centuries. You can’t print more of it, like we have done with the dollar. The recent rally in gold has much to do with that fact. His statement showed little concern for the consequences of printing money and signaled he would have no problem with continued printing. Gold responded by popping higher and reached new all-time highs this week.

We also received inflation data this week that was either better or worse that anticipated, depending on what you look at. Headline inflation was lower, largely due to lower gas prices. Core inflation strips out food and energy and showed a gain.

While we live in the real world and consider headline inflation a better indicator, policymakers like to use core inflation. One of the objectives of the recent stimulus was to boost inflation, since they believe falling prices pose a bigger problem to the economy than rising ones. Further stimulus would hinge a deflation threat, so the uptick in inflation makes further stimulus less likely.

This week was also the official kick-off of second quarter earnings season and earnings were pretty decent. However, they didn’t have much impact on the overall markets. Google released fantastic earnings and their shares popped sharply higher, but the gain had little impact on anything other than Google stock.

A lot was made about good earnings out of Citigroup, but we noticed something that we will be looking for in other banking stocks. The company showed a nice gain in income, but that didn’t actually come from business activity. They recently set aside a large amount of money to cover bad loans; however, the bad loans did not total as much as anticipated. They considered the difference in the amount set aside and the bad loan total as income. Therefore, it gave the company better income than they otherwise would have.

Lastly, the debt ceiling talk dominated headlines this week. However, it had very little impact on the markets. The bond market would be the best place to see any reaction, but it has been relatively unfazed. Bonds continue to trade at very low yields and they would be higher if there was any threat of default. The rhetoric will get louder as we approach the deadline, but think it will continue to have little impact on the markets.


Next Week

Next week will be very light in terms of economic data but corporate earnings will be full gear. Far too many companies to list, but we will get earnings from virtually every sector of the economy. That alone should make next week an interesting one.


Investment Strategy

No change here as earnings season gets underway. Economic factors in the U.S. have been poor recently and we worry that they may begin to take their toll on earnings. At this point, we feel it is too risky to make any large bets on the general market and are very cautious.

Finding good individual stocks could be a good play at this time instead of making any broad bets. As value investors by nature, we like to buy things that look to be cheap or trading at a discount (using industry jargon, we like to have a margin of safety).

We have enjoyed investing in smaller stocks that are uncorrelated to the movements of the market and economy. These aren’t big positions in our portfolio and can be risky, but it is nice seeing stocks move on fundamentals rather than being pushed around by big investors and high frequency traders.

Outside of these small stocks, if we were to put new money to work, in equities we are focused on large cap higher-quality stocks, particularly companies with operations overseas. We like commodities for the long term and weakness could present a buying opportunity.

TIPs are important as we expect inflation to increase (although we will revise our outlook for these securities if any changes are made to the CPI measurements), while U.S. Treasuries are a sector we are very bearish (pessimistic) on as we think yields will increase over time and is looking more likely as QE2 has ended. Municipal bonds are important and there are some nice yielding bonds out there now (try to avoid muni funds and buy the actual bond if possible).

Finally, international stocks are facing many headwinds, most notably, slower growth and inflation. Still, if we had to put new money in, we favor developed international markets as opposed to emerging.

These day-to-day and week-to-week fluctuations have little impact on positions we intend to hold for several years or longer. Our short and medium term investments are the only positions affected by these weekly and monthly changes.



This commentary is for informational purposes and is not investment advice, an indicator of future performance, a solicitation, an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation for any security. It should not be used as a primary basis for making investment decisions. Consider your own financial circumstances and goals carefully before investing. Past performance cannot guarantee results.

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Commentary for the week ending 7-8-11

What looked to be a decent week went out with a whimper as poor employment numbers sent the market lower. For the week, the Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P inched higher by 0.3%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.6%. Treasury bonds rose on economic worries (prices were up, so yields fell). The news also sent gold sharply higher, up nearly 4%. Oil neared $100 per barrel after dipping into the $80’s two weeks ago, yet closed the week up 1.3% at $96 per barrel.

Source: MSN Moneycentral

The week started out on a fairly bright note, continuing the rally from the previous week. There was even some decent news to support the rally. Sales at retail companies like Gap, Macy’s, and Target in June were much better than expected.

Also, the ADP employment report (an employment report that precedes the important government employment report. The ADP figure is derived from the activity of firms using the ADP payroll service) was surprisingly strong, resulting in solid gains in the market.

Unfortunately the tide turned on Friday. The non-farm payroll employment report released that morning was terrible, frankly. Economists were predicting a number north of 100,000 new jobs last month, but the actual number was just 18,000. Also, the prior two months were revised much lower, painting an even weaker jobs picture.

The resulting unemployment rate now stands at 9.2%, up from 9.1% the month before. When considering the underemployed (either working part time or gave up looking for work), the figure is over 16%.

While this news is bad, we see a more troubling trend brewing. The labor force (the amount of people actively working or looking for work) keeps heading lower and now stands at a new 25 year low. Also, the average length of unemployment stands at an all time high of almost 40 weeks.

As you can see in the chart on the right (it may appear small, but the bottom axis is years beginning in 1948 and the vertical axis measures weeks. Chart courtesy zerohedge.com), the recent figures dwarf any other time in recent history. We are becoming a society of the perpetually unemployed. Countless government programs have been established to alleviate the burden on the unemployed, but we see it as making things worse and the chart supports that.

There have been many excuses why unemployment is persisting. On Friday alone we heard that it is due to the debt ceiling not being raised. And lack of infrastructure spending (although we just spent hundreds of billions for that purpose). And an inefficient patents process. And greedy companies hoarding cash. We even heard the number justified by the Labor Secretary Hilda Solis saying that President Bush only averaged 11,000 jobs per month during his tenure.

All these reasons are ridiculous and show how out of touch our decision makers are. Uncertainty on future rules, regulations, and taxes plays a part in preventing hiring. However, certainty of bad policies is even worse. In our business, for example, we know that our costs and regulations are increasing due to the recent passage of the Dodd-Frank bill. Countless other industries are facing similar situations. With these negative certainties and looming uncertainties, it makes companies less likely to invest in new hires.

The other factor preventing hiring is a lack of demand for products or services. That’s were the government thinks they should step in – increase spending to increase demand. We see the problem with demand is simply that people don’t have the money to spend like they used to.

Just look at your own budget – you’re spending more on things like gas and food which prevents spending elsewhere (stemming from a decline in the strength of the dollar due to massive government printing and spending). New and increased fees in things like your bank account take another cut (thanks to Dodd-Frank). Our power bills are more than double what they were a year ago (and a recent EPA announcement assures us that they will continue to increase. Link to story).

These may be just a few small examples, but when multiplied by millions and millions of people, it begins to add up. Many people simply don’t have the money to spend like they used to.

When government thinks it knows best and tries to help, it creates unintended consequences that we are beginning to see. Until this changes, we don’t see employment making a measured improvement.


Next Week

Next week will be very busy as earnings season kicks off. The aluminum maker Alcoa gets the ball rolling on Monday and several banking companies will close out the week. Corporate profits have been the bright spot that has fueled the market rise so far. There are worries now that an increase in costs will weigh on earnings. We thought this last quarter, too, although it never really materialized. Either way, next week will be very important.

There will also be several economic reports that we will be watching. Late in the week we will get data on the producer and consumer price indexes (PPI and CPI), which gives us a read on inflation. With the decline in gas prices, it is believed that they will show little inflation.


Investment Strategy

The markets continue to bounce around, but it was reassuring to see them hold the level from the prior week despite the poor employment report. However, we are not making any big bets as earnings season approaches. Earnings have been solid up to now, but we worry that the negative aspects of the economy may begin to take their toll on earnings. At this point, we feel it is too risky to make any large bets on the general market and are very cautious.

Finding good individual stocks could be a good play at this time. As value investors by nature, we like to buy things that look to be cheap or trading at a discount (using industry jargon, we like to have a margin of safety).

We have enjoyed investing in smaller stocks that are uncorrelated to the movements of the market and economy. These aren’t big positions in our portfolio and can be risky, but it is nice seeing stocks move on fundamentals rather than being pushed around by big investors and high frequency traders.

Outside of these small stocks, if we were to put new money to work, in equities we are focused on large cap higher-quality stocks, particularly companies with operations overseas. We like commodities for the long term and weakness could present a buying opportunity.

TIPs are important as we expect inflation to increase (although we will revise our outlook for these securities if any changes are made to the CPI measurements), while U.S. Treasuries are a sector we are very bearish (pessimistic) on as we think yields will increase over time and is looking more likely as QE2 has ended. Municipal bonds are important and there are some nice yielding bonds out there now (try to avoid muni funds and buy the actual bond if possible).

Finally, international stocks are facing many headwinds, most notably, slower growth and inflation. Still, if we had to put new money in, we favor developed international markets as opposed to emerging.

These day-to-day and week-to-week fluctuations have little impact on positions we intend to hold for several years or longer. Our short and medium term investments are the only positions affected by these weekly and monthly changes.


This commentary is for informational purposes and is not investment advice, an indicator of future performance, a solicitation, an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation for any security. It should not be used as a primary basis for making investment decisions. Consider your own financial circumstances and goals carefully before investing. Past performance cannot guarantee results.

Sunday, July 3, 2011

Commentary for the week ending 7-1-11

Wow, what a week. The market performed exceptionally well with the Dow rising 5.4%, the S&P 500 higher by 5.6%, and the Nasdaq up 6.2%. Treasury bonds fell sharply (prices dropped, so yields rose), with the end of QE2 likely having some impact. Gold was lower by 1.2% and oil climbed back higher by 4.1% as the effects of the strategic petroleum reserve releases began to wear off.

Source: MSN Moneycentral

It isn’t often that you see a chart that looks like the one above. It was a remarkable week for the markets and the gains were the biggest we’ve seen in two years. There was some optimistic news that helped fuel the run, but nothing really spectacular that we can point to.

Of course Greece was in the headlines again. Helping the markets move higher, the government passed austerity measures that allowed them further bailout funds. This ruled out a debt default for the time being.

While austerity measures and less government spending is needed, we are sure there will continue to be problems. The size of their debt is so large that it will be very difficult to pay off. Also, the wave of new taxes will have a negative effect on growth. Lower taxes will promote growth, thereby maximizing future tax revenues (as we have seen in the U.S. in the past). Not to mention that the national pastime in Greece is tax avoidance. Greece may be fading out of the headlines for now, but we are sure to see them back before too long (as well as any of the other troubled Euro countries).

Also contributing to the rise this week was better than expected manufacturing data. The news really wasn’t that great, ‘modest’ is the word we would use to describe it. However, other manufacturing data we have recently received was awful, so expectations were very low. The news signaled that we may not be entering another downturn. Also, the data showed that inflation was not having as big an impact as it had in the past, largely due to the pullback in oil prices.

We believe that the biggest reason for the market rise this week was window dressing. This occurs at the end of the quarter or month when investment professionals add new positions and bid up stock prices to make their performance look better. The volume of trades this week was extremely light so it doesn’t take much to push the markets around. The news on manufacturing and Greece was nice, but probably not enough to push markets over 5% higher.

Government bond yields moved sharply higher (so prices dropped) this week. It is no coincidence that bonds are making these moves just as QE2 ends. Remember, in the QE2 program, the Federal Reserve bought hundreds of billions in bonds in order to keep yields low. That was thought to help the economy by making borrowing easier through low interest rates, low mortgage rates, etc (unfortunately it helped very little). Now that the Fed isn’t keeping bond yields low, we anticipate a further rise in rates (thereby a further drop in bond prices).


Next Week

Being a short week, next week will have no major earnings releases and few economic reports. All eyes will be on employment data on Thursday and Friday, though. All signs point to a deterioration in employment. The market may be anticipating this, though, so there might not be much of a sell-off on bad news. Surprises either way will likely move the markets, though. It will be interesting to see if the market can hold the levels we reached last week.


Investment Strategy

Even with the sharp rise in the markets this week, there is little change in our strategy. We will see if last week was a changing point in the market or was due to artificial elements like window dressing. The coming weeks will give us a clue as 2nd quarter earnings will be released. Earnings have been solid up to now, but many economists think the negative aspects of the economy may begin to take their toll on earnings. At this point, we feel it is too risky to make any large bets on the general market and are very cautious.

However, picking good individual stocks should be a good play at this time. As value investors by nature, we like to buy things that look to be cheap or trading at a discount (using industry jargon, we like to have a margin of safety).

We have enjoyed investing in smaller stocks that are uncorrelated to the movements of the market and economy. These aren’t big positions in our portfolio and can be risky, but it is nice seeing stocks move on fundamentals rather than being pushed around by big investors and high frequency traders.

Outside of these small stocks, if we were to put new money to work, in equities we are focused on large cap higher-quality stocks, particularly companies with operations overseas.

Commodities have generally sold off on a perceived weakness in the economy, as well as a strengthening dollar (the dollar strengthened due to the Euro weakening). We like commodities for the long term and weakness could present a buying opportunity.

TIPs are important as we expect inflation to increase (although we will revise our outlook for these securities if any changes are made to the CPI measurements), while U.S. Treasuries are a sector we are very bearish (pessimistic) on as we think yields will increase over time and is looking more likely as QE2 has ended. Municipal bonds are important and there are some nice yielding bonds out there now (try to avoid muni funds and buy the actual bond if possible).

Finally, international stocks are facing many headwinds, most notably, slower growth and inflation. Still, if we had to put new money in, we favor developed international markets as opposed to emerging.

These day-to-day and week-to-week fluctuations have little impact on positions we intend to hold for several years or longer. Our short and medium term investments are the only positions affected by these weekly and monthly changes.



This commentary is for informational purposes and is not investment advice, an indicator of future performance, a solicitation, an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation for any security. It should not be used as a primary basis for making investment decisions. Consider your own financial circumstances and goals carefully before investing. Past performance cannot guarantee results.