Commentary for the week ending 3-27-15

Please note: there will be no market commentary next week due to the Easter holiday.  Thank you.

Stocks saw solid declines this week.  Through the close Friday, the Dow fell 2.3%, the S&P lost 2.2%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.7%.  Gold notched its second-straight positive week, gaining 1.3%.  Oil also continued higher as tensions rose in the Mideast, climbing 4.9% to $48.87 per barrel.  The international Brent oil, which is used to make much of our gas here in the east, saw a slight increase to close at $56.12 per barrel.

Source: Barchart.com

The market started the week on a down note and kept moving lower from there.  This was surprising after last week’s gains coming on the belief that stimulus from the Fed would continue for longer.  We thought bad news would be good news for the market, but that wasn’t the case this week. 

There wasn’t one item we could point to as the culprit for the decline this week, just a few small stories that all contributed to the malaise.  We had some poor economic data, lower expectations for future growth, and trouble brewing in the Middle East. 

The upcoming end of the quarter looks to have played a part, too, as investors exited profitable positions to lock in gains before the quarter ended. 

The economic data this week leaned to the negative side.  Housing reports showed nice gains, but durable goods sales fell for yet another month and inflation ticked higher. 

Our overall economic growth looks to be slowing as well.  Revisions to fourth quarter GDP showed only a disappointing 2.2% growth, which is much lower than previous quarters. 

One troubling aspect of the report was the segment for corporate profits showed a surprising drop.  This has been a concern recently as corporations have been increasingly warning over the strength of the dollar as hurting sales. 

The stronger dollar does make our goods sold overseas more expensive for those foreign buyers.  However, we wonder how many companies are using this simply as an excuse. 

Research has shown that overseas sales are more dependent on the strength of those economies, not how strong or weak our currency is against theirs.  So while the currency may play a part, it is likely not as big a factor as they would like you to believe.

Regardless, these worries have analysts expecting a sharp drop in corporate profits for the first quarter.  As of now, Factset is estimating a 5% drop in profits while back in December they were seeing a 4% gain.  That is quite a large shift in only a couple months. 

Expectations for first quarter GDP are also dropping.  While last quarter was disappointing at 2.2% growth, analysts are now forecasting a 0% growth.  After several years of the largest stimulus program in the history of the world, you’d think we’d be seeing a better outcome. 


Next Week

With the end of the month and quarter, next week will be fairly busy for economic data.  It will be an odd week, too, with the markets closed on Friday, but economic reports will still be released. 

We will get info on inflation, personal income and spending, housing, manufacturing, and employment.  The employment report will be released on Friday, which will be difficult because it is such a closely watched number. 


Investment Strategy

It’s hard to tell if the activity of the market this week was more due to the end of the quarter or if it is the start of something bigger.  We think if the market were to see a significant downturn, the Fed would continue or increase its accommodative stance to boost the markets.  It may do little to help the actual economy, but it has proven to be a benefit for the market. 

In the longer-run, though, we worry the longer these stimulus programs remain in place, the greater the distortions in the market become.  This makes the correction even more painful when it does correct.  The “when” is anyone’s guess, however. 

Bond prices fell this week (so yields rose) and we think they will likely to stay around this level or rise further.  We think stimulus from global central bankers will keep our bonds attractive to investors and therefore keep yields low (and prices high).

Bonds to protect against inflation, or TIPs, remain a good long term hedge for inflation.  They have not fared well recently as the likelihood of inflation has waned with the lower energy prices, but we are keeping a longer term focus with them. 

Some municipal bonds look attractive for the right client, too.  We like buying individual, insured names for these bonds, avoiding muni index bonds if possible. They have not done well recently as a record supply has kept prices low.  Therefore, we keep a longer term focus with these investments. 

Gold is another good hedge for the portfolio.  It is only a hedge at this point – rising when more stimulus looks likely and falling on the opposite.  But it does protect against negative effects from policymakers. 

Finally, in international stocks, we see weakness around the globe and favor neither the developed or emerging markets.  However, the stimulus programs in Europe and Japan do make for interesting investments, as long as the currency effects are hedged. 

Please note, these day-to-day and week-to-week fluctuations have little impact on positions we intend to hold for several years or longer.  Our short and medium term investments are the only positions affected by these daily and weekly fluctuations. 


This commentary is for informational purposes and is not investment advice, an indicator of future performance, a solicitation, an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation for any security. It should not be used as a primary basis for making investment decisions. Consider your own financial circumstances and goals carefully before investing. Past performance cannot guarantee results.

Commentary for the week ending 3-20-15

Remarks from the Fed sent stocks soaring this week.  Through the Friday close, the Dow gained 2.1%, the S&P rose 2.7%, and the Nasdaq had a nice 3.2% increase.  Gold finally turned in a positive week, rising 2.8%.  Oil hit six-year lows before currency fluctuations helped push prices higher (weaker dollar = higher oil prices), up 2.0% to $45.72 per barrel.  The international Brent oil, which is used to make much of our gas here in the east, saw a slight increase to close at $55.22 per barrel.

Source: Barchart.com

This week was all about the Fed.  They held a highly-anticipated meeting where we were expected to learn more about their stance on interest rates.  These rates have been held at historic low levels which have helped fuel a rise in the stock market.  Investors increasingly believed the Fed will raise rates as early as June (which would send stocks lower but probably help the economy), so any news from this meeting would have a significant impact on the market. 

The results of the meeting, however, did not disappoint the market.  While the Fed did remove a key term, “patient,” used to indicate a minimum three-month timeframe before rate increases, they stressed the need to see improving economic data before rates would rise.

This sent stocks soaring because aside from employment data, economic data has been lousy.  We’re back to bad economic data boosting the stock market, for it means less chance for interest rate hikes.

The Fed even admitted economic growth has been disappointing, revising every economic projection lower.  The one constant of these Fed projections has been that they are always too high.  In the last several years, we don’t believe one single economic projection from the Fed has been met or exceeded.  The economy continues to disappoint. 

This begs the question, if nearly seven years of the largest stimulus program in the history of the world has failed to improve the economy, what makes the Fed think they are taking the right steps to fix it? 

Last week we discussed how Ireland took a different path to improving their economy.  They cut government spending, debt, and welfare while lowering taxes, resulting in the strongest economic growth in all of Europe and double that of the U.S.  We wish a similar approach would be tried here, but that looks highly, highly unlikely. 

Along the same lines, a story out of Japan caught our attention this week.  Their stock market has been steadily rising and is now standing at 15-year highs.  What’s troubling is how it got there.

The Japanese Central Bank is openly printing money and aggressively buying stocks with it.  They currently buy nearly every day the market opens lower to push it higher, and some economists believe they will be buying stocks every day by the middle of the year. 

Further, government officials have directed the government pension fund to invest more into stocks – both foreign and domestic. 

At this point there is no way to say it delicately – we think this has become absolutely insane.  This may make the party last a little longer, but we see dire consequences in the future.  The end will be quite messy. 

We’ll close this section with an un-apocalyptic story, where this week Apple was added to the Dow index.  Many people don’t realize that the Dow is only 30 stocks that are believed to best represent the U.S. economy (which is why many believe the S&P 500 is a better barometer of the true market). 

With the tremendous rise in Apple stock recently, many believe its addition will be a nice boon to the index.  However, history has shown that stocks tend to join an index at their highs and falter, while stocks that are removed from an index tend to rise thereafter.  It will be interesting to see how the Apple story will play out going forward.     


Next Week

As we discussed above, any bad economic reports in the near future will be good for the stock market, and vice-versa.  There will be a couple reports with the potential to move the market, too. 

A major focus of the Fed is boosting inflation, so investors will keep an eye on the CPI inflation report released on Tuesday.   The GDP on Friday will be a revision to the fourth quarter number, so while important, its backward-looking nature may make it less so.  We’ll also get data on manufacturing, retail sales, and housing.  


Investment Strategy

It looks like stocks have the wind at their back here.  After this week, we see the Fed is less likely to pull the punchbowl away so stocks will certainly benefit.  In the short-run, stocks are likely to rise.

In the longer-run, though, we worry the longer these stimulus programs remain in place, the greater the distortions in the market become.  This makes the correction even more painful when it does correct.  The “when” is anyone’s guess, however. 

Bond prices rose this week (so yields fell) and we think they will likely to stay around this level or rise further.  We think stimulus from global central bankers will keep our bonds attractive to investors and therefore keep yields low (and prices high).

Bonds to protect against inflation, or TIPs, remain a good long term hedge for inflation.  They have not fared well recently as the likelihood of inflation has waned with the lower energy prices, but we are keeping a longer term focus with them. 

Some municipal bonds look attractive for the right client, too.  We like buying individual, insured names for these bonds, avoiding muni index bonds if possible. They have not done well recently as a record supply has kept prices low.  Therefore, we keep a longer term focus with these investments. 

Gold is another good hedge for the portfolio.  It is only a hedge at this point – rising when more stimulus looks likely and falling on the opposite. 

Finally, in international stocks, we see weakness around the globe and favor neither the developed or emerging markets.  However, the stimulus programs in Europe and Japan do make for interesting investments, as long as the currency effects are hedged. 

Please note, these day-to-day and week-to-week fluctuations have little impact on positions we intend to hold for several years or longer.  Our short and medium term investments are the only positions affected by these daily and weekly fluctuations. 


This commentary is for informational purposes and is not investment advice, an indicator of future performance, a solicitation, an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation for any security. It should not be used as a primary basis for making investment decisions. Consider your own financial circumstances and goals carefully before investing. Past performance cannot guarantee results.

Commentary for the week ending 3-13-15

It was a rocky week for the markets.  For the week, the Dow lost 0.6%, the S&P dropped 0.9%, and the Nasdaq saw a 1.1% decline.  Gold had a rough week, down 1.0%.  Oil declined on reports of even higher oil inventories (more supply = lower prices), off a remarkable 9.6% to $44.84 per barrel.  The international Brent oil, which is used to make much of our gas here in the east, lost over $5 to close at $54.89 per barrel.

Source: Google Finance

Central banks were the story of the week.  A solid employment report last week increased the odds that the Fed would raise interest rates soon (low rates have fueled the stock market rise, hence the concern), and that worry spilled into this week.  The Fed holds a policy meeting next week where those rates will be discussed, so the market saw big moves as investors anticipated what the Fed will announce.

This made economic data a major focus this week.  Bad news was good news for stocks – and vice-versa – since bad news might postpone a rate increase.  Therefore, stocks continued to slide after that solid employment report the previous week.  However, they rose nicely when retail sales reported a decline for the third month in a row.  This is unusual when not in a recession.  The gain didn’t last long, though, as stocks resumed their move lower shortly thereafter. 

The European Central Bank (ECB) was also a big story this week.  Monday marked the launch of their stimulus program, where they print money to buy government bonds of various European countries.  This has pushed bond prices to record highs (and yields to record lows).  Since investors know the ECB will be buying these bonds at any price, they bought as many bonds as they could knowing prices will rise further.  It’s like buying Apple stock at record highs, but having no fear because you knew someone would buy them from you at an even higher price.  

That printed money usually works its way into the stock market, too, so European stocks have been rising as a result. 

We have no doubt this stimulus program will fail to bring about economic recovery in Europe, just like it failed to do in every other place it has been tried.  Significant structural reforms are the only thing that will bring about real growth and these stimulus programs prevent them from happening. 

Providing an example of what is needed, this week Ireland reported strong economic growth.  Their economy grew at a 4.8% pace last year, the strongest growth in all of Europe and also doubled the growth here in the U.S.  Since St. Patrick’s Day is approaching, it provides us the perfect opportunity to discuss Ireland further. 

The country faced a similar problem as the U.S. when the recession began; they had a housing boom collapse and mountains of debt. 

Both the U.S. and Europe believe the prescription to fix the economy is to increase government spending and taxes and take on more debt to spur growth.  Instead, Ireland took a different path and was sternly reprimanded for doing so. 

Ireland took their medicine.  They cut government spending.  Cut debt.  Cut welfare.  Lowered taxes.  And it was tough at first.  But now the economy has rebounded and they are in the best shape in Europe. 

This is remedy for the rest of the world to follow, yet no major economy will recognize this as they continue to move the opposite direction.  It should be no wonder why growth remains elusive in these countries.  Unfortunately, policymakers often think they must go even bigger for growth to appear, only to find their economies falling further behind.  Leave it to the Irish to show us what needs to be done.   


Next Week

All eyes will be on the Fed next week.  There will be a few minor economic reports out, though they will likely have little impact on the market. 

The Fed will hold another policy meeting next week where they are expected to provide more information on increasing interest rates.  The language of their statement will be very important.  Presently, the Fed uses the term “patient” to describe their approach to raising rates.  However, many believe that term will be removed and therefore indicate a rate hike in June.  If the word remains, they will likely hold off and stocks are bound to rise.  Sadly, this is what our market has become.


Investment Strategy

Well, it’s no longer a stock-pickers market.  The last few weeks have seen stocks move more independently of each other.  This week, however, saw stocks move more in tandem with each other as they all rose or fell based on central bank activity. 

The recent sell-off makes stocks look inexpensive in the short run, but a focus on central banks makes the market very unpredictable at this point.  We wouldn’t do any buying now as a result.  There are many undervalued individual stocks, too, but we are reluctant to put any new money in. 

We continue to have concerns for the longer term.  We worry about the distortions created by the central banks and money printing.  Stimulus around the globe continues to send stocks higher, but we worry the longer it continues, the more painful the correction will be. 

Bond prices rose this week (so yields fell).  Investors seem to be bracing for higher interest rates soon, which will be bad for bonds.  It’s really anyone’s guess what prices will do in the near term, but we think stimulus from global central bankers will keep our bonds attractive to investors and therefore keep yields low (and prices high).

Bonds to protect against inflation, or TIPs, remain a good long term hedge for inflation.  They have not fared well recently as the likelihood of inflation has waned with the lower energy prices, but we are keeping a longer term focus with them. 

Some municipal bonds look attractive for the right client, too.  We like buying individual, insured names for these bonds, avoiding muni index bonds if possible. They have not done well recently as a record supply has kept prices low.  Therefore, we keep a longer term focus with these investments. 

Gold is another good hedge for the portfolio.  It is only a hedge at this point – rising when more stimulus looks likely and falling on the opposite. 

Finally, in international stocks, we see weakness around the globe and favor neither the developed or emerging markets. 

Please note, these day-to-day and week-to-week fluctuations have little impact on positions we intend to hold for several years or longer.  Our short and medium term investments are the only positions affected by these daily and weekly fluctuations. 


This commentary is for informational purposes and is not investment advice, an indicator of future performance, a solicitation, an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation for any security. It should not be used as a primary basis for making investment decisions. Consider your own financial circumstances and goals carefully before investing. Past performance cannot guarantee results.

Commentary for the week ending 3-6-15

Markets took a turn lower this week.  Through the close Friday, the Dow fell 1.5%, the S&P lost 1.6%, while the Nasdaq fared the best on a 0.7% decline.  Bonds sold off and yields rose as the potential for higher interest rates increased.  Gold sold off sharply on that news, closing the week down 4.0%.  Oil inventories rose to the highest levels in 80 years, sending oil prices lower by a slight 0.3% to $49.61 per barrel.  The international Brent oil, which is used to make much of our gas here in the east, lost $3 to close at $60.26 per barrel.

Source: Google Finance

The week started out on a strong note – the Dow and S&P reached record highs while the Nasdaq crossed the 5,000 level it last saw 15 years ago.  However, stocks trended lower from there all week, with no news we can directly point to as the culprit. 

For the news of the week, we’ll start in Europe.  Months ago they announced a stimulus package that would begin in March and this week we learned it will begin on Monday.  They’ll print over $66 billion a month to buy government bonds, pushing bond yields lower to make borrowing easier.  This is supposed to stimulate the economy, although the jury is still out on its effectiveness. 

Even if it does little to help the economy, that printed money will flow into the stock market and push up stock prices.  We’ve seen that everywhere it has been tried.  European stocks will benefit, but it is likely to spill over into other stock markets (like the U.S.), as well. 

Economic data received a lot of attention this week, too.  All eyes were on the employment report that came on Friday.  The numbers came in much better than expected, with the U.S. adding 295,000 jobs in February.  The unemployment rate fell from 5.7% to 5.5%.

While these numbers painted a solid employment picture, the report had a lot of “Yeah, buts.”  Our labor force participation (the number of people employed or looking for work) stands at figures last seen in the 1970’s, with a record 92.9 million Americans no longer in the labor force. 

Plus, energy sector job losses seem to be undercounted.  An employment report earlier in the week from Challenger, Gray, and Christmas noted over 16,000 job losses in the energy sector (oil, specifically).  The previous month they saw more than 21,000 losses.  However, Friday’s employment report only counted 1,800 job losses in this area and 1,100 in January.  The difference is hard to ignore. 

Regardless, stocks fell strongly after the employment report.  Why?  Improving employment means less need for stimulus from the Fed.  This increases the chance that interest rates will be raised as soon as June, which is important since these low interest rates have helped send stocks higher. 

Finally, an interesting report showed companies bought back their own stock at the fastest pace ever last month (LINK).  These companies have taken advantage of low borrowing rates to cheaply borrow money to buy back their own stock.  This, therefore, pushes up the value of their stock since there are fewer shares outstanding.  This, too, has been a big factor in the markets rise.  And it’s another reason why higher interest rates (or higher rates to borrow money) will send stocks lower.  

Next Week

Next week looks fairly uneventful for data as we will get a few smaller economic data reports.  We’ll get info on trade, employment (from January), retail sales, and inflation at the producer level. 

Really, the focus next week is likely to be more on a Fed meeting coming the following week.  With the employment report this week, many investors are expecting to see interest rates rising soon.  Next week we’ll see more investors positioning their portfolios for what they think will come from the Fed. 


Investment Strategy

It’s tough to guess what the market will do from here.  We saw stocks as expensive in the short-term before and while they are still on the expansive side, it’s obviously a little less expensive now.  However, we are not looking to do any buying or selling at this point.  It’s too early to tell if investors will continue selling-off stocks in anticipation of higher interest rates.  Worth noting, there are many more individual stocks we see as being undervalued, so we’d be more likely to put any new money here rather than the broader stock market. 

We still have concerns for the longer term.  We worry about the distortions created by the central banks and money printing.  Stimulus around the globe continues to send stocks higher, but we worry the longer it continues, the more painful the correction will be. 

The bond market looks to have begun its move lower (so yields are rising).  Investors seem to be bracing for higher interest rates soon, which will be bad for bonds.  It’s really anyone’s guess if they will continue to fall (or yields rise) in the near term, but we think stimulus from global central bankers will keep our bonds attractive to investors and therefore keep yields low.

Bonds to protect against inflation, or TIPs, remain a good long term hedge for inflation.  They have not fared well recently as the likelihood of inflation has waned with the lower energy prices, but we are keeping a longer term focus with them.  Some municipal bonds look attractive for the right client, too.  We like buying individual, insured names for these bonds, avoiding muni index bonds if possible. We keep a longer term focus with these investments, too. 

Gold is another good hedge for the portfolio.  It is only a hedge at this point – rising when more stimulus looks likely and falling on the opposite. 

Finally, in international stocks, we see weakness around the globe and favor neither the developed or emerging markets. 

Please note, these day-to-day and week-to-week fluctuations have little impact on positions we intend to hold for several years or longer.  Our short and medium term investments are the only positions affected by these daily and weekly fluctuations. 


This commentary is for informational purposes and is not investment advice, an indicator of future performance, a solicitation, an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation for any security. It should not be used as a primary basis for making investment decisions. Consider your own financial circumstances and goals carefully before investing. Past performance cannot guarantee results.

Commentary for the week ending 2-27-15

It was another quiet week on Wall Street.  Through the Friday close, the Dow was lower by a slight 0.04%, the S&P fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%.  Friday also marked the end of the month, which turned out to be the best month for stocks in over two years.  Gold turned higher, rising 0.7%.  Oil saw another decline, off 2.1% to $49.76 per barrel.  The international Brent oil, used for much of our gas here in the east, actually gained $3 to $63.09 per barrel.

Source: Google Finance

The week was another relatively uneventful one.  Greece has fallen from the headlines with their bailout, although questions remain if they will actually abide by the terms they agreed to.  We’re sure we’ll be talking about this subject again in four months when their bailout extension ends.

The Fed was in the news this week as Fed chair Janet Yellen testified before Congress.  She updated them with the Fed’s take on the economy and where their policy currently stands and where it’s expected to go in the future.  Investors were again watching closely for any clues as to when the Fed would raise interest rates, which would likely hurt the stock market. 

Chair Yellen sounded upbeat on the employment picture as the unemployment rate continues to improve.  However, she cited concerns with other weaker economic data points and low inflation.  Still, the Fed believes the economy is on the mend and an increase in interest rates is likely if it continues to improve. 

Stocks rose on her comments, since many investors don’t see the economy improving enough for interest rates to rise in the near future.  While many believe a June rate hike is on the table, it seems like more investors see it coming later in the year – if at all. 

Supporting that view was weaker economic data this week.  Two main economic points the Fed looks at – the strength of the economy and inflation – both had disappointing reports this week. 

Economic growth was lower than originally thought as GDP for the fourth quarter was revised lower.  For all of 2014, it looks like the economy grew at a 2.4% pace, which for some context, we averaged 3.4% in the 1990’s.  The economy isn’t as strong as many think. 

Inflation at the consumer level (CPI) saw its first negative year since 2009.  A decline in energy prices pushed the CPI lower last month to make it negative on a year-over-year basis.  Remember, the Fed wants HIGHER inflation, which it thinks (misguidedly, we believe) will lead to better economic growth. 

Other economic data this week was largely negative, too.  Housing data was disappointing, weekly jobless claims showed a sharp rise, and a report on economic activity in the Chicago region hit the weakest level in six years.  It wasn’t all bad though, as durable goods showed a nice increase. 

Corporate earnings season is wrapping up for the fourth quarter.  As it stands now, nearly all of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings.  At the beginning of earnings season, analysts were predicting a lackluster 1.1% increase, only to see earnings actually rose 3.7% (although that 1.1% was revised down sharply before earnings season, making the bar easy to beat). 

Finally, the Nasdaq market was a big story this week.  By rising 11 of the past 13 days, the index is within reach of its all-time highs reached back in 2000.  The record level is 5,048, while it stood at 4,964 at Friday’s close.  Of course, many of the names in the index have been replaced over the last 15 years, so it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison.  It is still noteworthy, though.  Is this the sign of another bubble, or are the valuations justified?  Only time will tell. 

Nasdaq:

Next Week

Next week looks to be a bit quieter.  There won’t be any news out of the Fed and we are unlikely to hear much news from Europe.  There will be several economic reports, including the strength of the manufacturing and service sectors, plus employment from February.  Also, we’ll get a look at the Fed’s Beige Book, which gives anecdotal accounts on the strength of the economy. 


Investment Strategy

Still no change here.  We still seem to be shifting to more of a stock pickers market, where some stocks or sectors rise while others fall, so you have to pick the right stocks.  Stocks used to rise or fall in unison when a news item – usually from a central bank – would send all stocks the same direction.   Of course, this could all change when interest rates rise or the European stimulus starts in March.

We think stocks are still on the expensive side and we see fewer buying opportunities.  We are not looking to sell at this point, though, but are not looking to put any new money in. 

We still have concerns for the longer term.  We worry about the distortions created by the central banks and money printing (just look at the recent plunge in oil prices or the high valuations in social media stocks we discussed above).  Stimulus continues to send stocks higher, but we worry the longer it continues, the more painful the correction will be. 

The bond market continues to trade in a tight range.  Investors seem to be bracing for higher interest rates soon, which will be bad for bonds.  It’s really anyone’s guess what bonds may do in the near-term, but the longer term may see bond prices continue to rise (so yields fall) as the stimulus programs push up bond prices around the globe.  

Bonds to protect against inflation, or TIPs, remain a good long term hedge for inflation.  They have not fared well recently as the likelihood of inflation has waned with the lower energy prices, but we are keeping a longer term focus with them.  Some municipal bonds look attractive for the right client, but not as good as they did several months ago.  We like buying individual, insured names for these bonds, avoiding muni index bonds if possible. We keep a longer term focus with these investments, too. 

Gold is another good hedge for the portfolio.  It is only a hedge at this point – rising on geopolitical worries and falling once they are out of the headlines.  It has done well lately, but with the volatility we’ve seen in it over the years, it is better to think of it as a hedge for the portfolio. 

Finally, in international stocks, we see weakness around the globe and favor neither the developed or emerging markets. 

Please note, these day-to-day and week-to-week fluctuations have little impact on positions we intend to hold for several years or longer.  Our short and medium term investments are the only positions affected by these daily and weekly fluctuations. 


This commentary is for informational purposes and is not investment advice, an indicator of future performance, a solicitation, an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation for any security. It should not be used as a primary basis for making investment decisions. Consider your own financial circumstances and goals carefully before investing. Past performance cannot guarantee results.