Sunday, December 27, 2009

Commentary for the week ending 12-24-09

Please note: There will be no market commentary next week. Thank you.

Amid a holiday-shortened week and light volume, the markets posted some solid gains. For the week ending Thursday, the Dow was up 1.85%, the S&P gained 2.18%, while the Nasdaq topped them all with a 3.35% gain.


Contributing to the gains this week was a better than expected unemployment report. Analysts were looking for 470,000 initial jobless claims, yet the number came in much lower at 452,000. These numbers are the lowest we have seen since September of last year. While this is a promising sign, the seasonal adjustments can always be tricky, so we will be paying close attention to the employment report next week. Also important to remember is that there are over 10 million people still unemployed in the U.S. (officially), so there is still a long way to go until this economy is healthy again.


We see next week being very similar to this past week. There will be light volume and few economic or earnings reports to impact trading, so this Santa Claus Rally will likely continue. Like we mentioned above, we will be paying close attention to the jobless claims on Thursday. Also worth watching, the Treasury will be auctioning off $118 billion in debt throughout the week. Monday will be $44 billion in 2-year notes, Tuesday is $42 billion in 5-years, and Wednesday is $32 billion in 7-years. There has been dwindling interest in U.S. debt and we don't see these auctions being well received, either. We have been investing in TBT (which shorts Treasuries) for some time now, and believe these poorly-received auctions will give the fund some nice gains.


Where are we investing now?


Similar to last week, we are not doing much trading in any of our portfolios right now. If we wanted to put some money to work, we would buy equities if the market makes a pullback, especially higher-quality stocks. We are still bullish on commodities and believe the dollar will continue lower. TIPs continue to be a favorite, as we expect inflation to increase in the future. Additionally, we are looking at putting more money internationally, as emerging markets (excluding China) are an area we favor.



As we close out 2009, we would like to wish you and your family a happy and prosperous 2010.